SicirBararkaiyoTalo Soo Jeedin
Abdiwahab Ali M. Garad
Bare, QaybtaDhaqaalaha (Hargeisa School of Economics)
Jaamacadda Hargeisa
Sicirbararka (inflation) oo ah kor u kacakudhacacelceliskaqiimahaalaabahaiyoadeegyadawaxauu ka mid yahaydhibaatooyinkaamaxanuunadakudhacadhaqaalahaoo ay ka cabtaanislamarkaana la tacaalaanwaddamofarabadani.
Sicirbarakawaxakeeniwaxyaabo kala duwan, waxaanaugumudan mid ka yimaadaaxagakorodhkadhaqaalahaoouusababayodalabkadadkaoobata (demand pull, mid ka yimaadaxagawaxsoosaarka (cost push), amalacagtaoobadata (excessive money supply).
Markaaynueegnosicirbararkahalaakeeyeydadka Somaliland kunoolwaxamuuqatainuu ka imanayoxagaiskubedelkasarifkalacagahasiibaDoolarkaMaraykankaiyoShilinka Somaliland.
Sidacaadiga ah waddamaduwaxay is isticmaalaanlacagtoodagaarka ah waddankagudihiisahalkauuBaankadhexeyahayinuuhayolacagahaqalaad (Foreign Reserves) sidaDoolarkaMaraykan, Ginni-da Ingiriis, Yuuro-da MidawgaYurubiwm. Xaaladanoo ka duwanteena Somaliland, qofkalacagqalaadwadanka la yimaadwaxaauukubadalanayaaintaugadhigantaeelacagtawaddanka ah (Somaliland Shillings) halkaqofkadoonayainuudibada u baxo, lacagdiro, amaalaabdibadakasooiibsadouulacagtiisawaddankageynayobaankadhexesiloogubedelointaugadhigantaeelacagtaqalaadeeuurabo.BaankadhexewaainuuhayaalacagkufilanooqalaadsidaDoolaroo kale ah siuu u gutohawlahaasiskubedelkalacagahakunailaaliyoheerkaiskubedelka.
Haddaba, waxanjirta in ay Somaliland siwadajir u isticmaasholacagtaShilinjka Somaliland iyoDoolarkaMaraykan-kaba. AlaabahaiyoadeegyadubadiyaawaxaykuqiimaysanyihiinlacagtaDoolarkaMaraykankataasookeenaysa in Doolar wax lagu kala iibsadointabadan.
Haddaba, waa mid caynkee ah sicirbararka Somaliland?
Inkastoolagayaabo in Somaliland sicirbararkiiqiimekacacaadigaahaana ka jiro, haddana, waxadhawaanahanmuuqata in qiimekorodhku ka imanayoisubedelkaamasarifkalacagta Somaliland iyoDoolarka. Taasoo ah in lacagtii Somaliland Shilinkiiqiimedhacdaymarka loo eegoDoolarkaMaraykan. Sidoo kale waxa la odhankaraawaxaqaaliyoobayDoolarkiMaraykanmarka loo eegoShilinka Somaliland, kasoohaddamarayahalkaDoolar ($1) lagubedelayo wax kuaadan 9000 SL SH. Taniwaxaykeentay in alaabihiiiyoadeegadubaqaaliyoobaaniyadoomarka loo eego SL SH. Tusaaleahaanshaygiiahaa $1 isbedelka ka horwaxaqofku u baahnaa 7500 SL SH. Laakiinhaddashayguisagooweli $1 ah ayuuqofku u baahanayaa 9000 SH SH, taasmuujinaysakor u kackudhaw 20% muddobilo ah gudahood.
Maxa u sabab ah isbedelkasarifka
WaxawaddankagudihiisakuyaraadaylacagtiiDoolarkaahayd,maadaamalacagtaDoolarkutahay mid calami oodhexwareegaysadhaqaalahaadduunkaislamarkaanaaynaanxukuminooMaraykanlagaleeyahay, waxa ay kuyaraatayfaraheenasababo ay ka mid yihiin
- Lacagtiiadkayd (hard currency) eeinagasoogelijirtayxoolahaoo Meesha ka baxday.
- Ganacsigiidibadaoohoos u dhacay (Trade deficit): wixii la dhoofinayayooaadhoosugamaraywaxiilalasoodegayay. SidaBaankaAdduunkusoosaaaraysanadkii 2014 waxaalaabahaaynu la soodegnaa ka bateenwaxaaynudhoofino $496 milyan (trade deficit) taasoolagadabaroxawaaladahalagaheloqurbejoogtaiyodeeqahacaalamiga ah. Hasayeeesheewaxa Meesha ka baxdaylacagtiiinagasoogalaysaydhoofka (ay ugubadanyihiinxoolahanool) oo 2012 laguqiyaasay $381 milyanoodoolar.
- LacagtaqaadkakubaxdaoohaddalagudiroDoolarhalkaawallagudirijiray Ethiopian Birr..
- Dhaqaalexumada ay keentayabaartabaahsan. Inkastaooaan la dersininta ay leegtahaysaamayntadhaqaalehaddana way muuqataa in dhaqaalexumowayniyoculays aykeentay.
IntanudhamaantoodwaxayaadyareeyeenxaddigalacagtaDoolarkaahaydeedhaqaalaheenakudhexwareegaysay.
- Lacagtamoobilada la iskagadiro: inkastaoo ay yaryihiincilmibaadhisyoxaqiijinkarasaamayntalacagahamoobilada la iskagadiraakuyeesheeniskubedelkalacagaha. Haddana, waxamuuqata in ay aadhoosugudhigeendalabkiiiyoisticmaalkiilacagta Shilling-ka Somaliland (demand for money), maadaamaqofkuawooduinuulacagoxaddigooduaad u yaryahaykudirikaroDoolarwaxaykeenaysaainuu ka maarmoinuusarrifto. Lacagaha la iskudiraasidoo kale waxaybadiyeenxawaarahalacagta (velocity of money) ooiyadalafteedunakeentasicirbarar.
- Somaliland Shilling-ka oobadatay (increased money supply): inkastaooaananhayninxogokusaabsaninta ay korodhayxadigalacagtaShilinka Somaliland eesuuqakujirta, haddawaxa la qiyaasikaraa in lacagcusubisuuqasoogashaymarka la eegocusaybkalacagta (notes) taasoolaftedalagayaaboinayWasaaradaMaaliyadaiyoBaankaDhexekuqasabtayduruufahadhaqaaleiyodakhligadawladaoohoosugudhacay.
Dadka ay DhibaatadauguWeyniGaadhayso
Inkastoosicirbararkanoocan ahi yahay mid ka jirawaddankaguudahaan. Haddanawaxa ay dhibaatadauguweynikuhabsataydadkaxoogsatada ah eedhaqaalahooduyaryahaymaadaama ay wax kuqaataanamakuiibiyaan Somaliland Shilin. Tusaaleahaa, ahaankiradaguriga, laydhka, iyocarruurtaiskuulkooduwaxarabaanDoolaar, halkaqofkanxoogsadehaahinahayo Somaliland ShilinqiimehiisuuugoynayoDoolarintiihore ka hooseeya. Waxa kale ooiyanadhibtaasqabashaqaalahadawlada.
Qiimedhacalacagta SL SH amakor u kacadoolarkuwaxay la mid tahayiyadooqofkaasmushaharkiisiiamamacaashkiisii la yareeyey.
Daddkanoocan ahi waadadkaugubadanwaddankakuwaasoonoloshooduaad u hooseeysosidacilmibaadhiyosheegeen kala badhdadkareer Soomaaliland yihiincaydhamasabool (under poverty line).
Gebogebo
Waxamuuqata in noloshadadkareer Somaliland ay aadadkeeyeenwaxyaabo ay ka mid yihiinabaaraha, iyosicirbararku. MasuuliyadakoowaadwaxaysaarantahayDawladaiyadoo loo marayohay’adahakushaqadaleh. Dhabahaanxukuumaduwaqtixaadirkan ma muuqdodedaal ay ka gashay la tacaalistaqiimedhaca shilling-ka Somaliland walawuuMadaxweynuhudhawaansoosaaraydegreetolagusheegayinaaniskubedelkaDoolarkaiyo Somaliland Shilling aanudhaafikarin 7000 SL SHhalkiiDoolarba(fixed exchange rate regime), iyo in la joojiyolacagahamoobilada la iskagadirowixii ka yar $100. Nasiibdarro se taasi may hirgelinsababo ay uguweyntahayiyadoonaqoonahaan loo dersinciddiiehelka u ahaydnalagatalogelin.Isla markaaanaamarkiidawladaeexakamayntalacagtamoobilada la iskagadiroaanu ka soconinxagaDawladda.
Talo Soo jeedin
Waxankutalinayaaqodobadan
In sicilmiyeysan loo baadhoasbaabtarasmigaeekeenaysasicirbararka, saamaynta ay kuleedahaynolosha, iyosidiilooguhelilahaaxalwaara.
Cilmibaadhista ka dib in xalkalagusaleeyoarrimodhaqaale (economic) eeaanlagusalaynarrimosiyaasadeed (political).
In la tayeeyohay’adahadawladaoo ay noqdaanqaarawood u lehshaqadaloogafadhiyosiaanxalkaqofloogasugineelagasugohay’adahakushaqadaleh (instructional building). Iyagaoo ka faaiidaysanayakhayraadka ay haystaansidashaqaalahaaqoontaleh.
In ay Dawladusamaysoislamarkaanafulisosiyaasadodhaqaalesidakuwamaaliyadda (fiscal policy), lacagta (monetary policy), kuwaganacsi (commercial policy), iwm.
Abdiwahab Ali M. Garad
Bare, AqoontaDhaqaalaha
KuliyadaDhaqaalaha (Hargeisa School of Economics)
Jaamacadda Hargeisa
Tell: 063-4404586
Email: abdiwahabgarad@yahoo.com