Doorashada Maddaxtinimada 2017: Guushu Waa xagee?
Silsilada Mutadawiciinta ayaa Daraasad mug wayn leh ku samysay codka xisbiga kulmiye uu ka heli doono lixda gobal ee doorashadu ka dhici doonto.
Daraasada ayaa loo maray dariiq dad ka kooban qaybaha kala duwan ee bulshada lagu waydiinayey cida ay u codayn doonaan saddexda xisbi qaran. Waxay darasadan ka qaybqaatay dad dhan 453 qof oo lagu saleeyay tirada dadka kaadhka codbixinta qaatay ee degmooyinka gobalada dalka ( the method was qualitative study) oo munadu tahay hadba sida ugu fudud ee dadka loola kulmi karaayay (convenience sampling)
Wadarta guud ee cod bixiyayaasha dalka oo dhan waa 704, 089.
Doorashadan ayaa dadka degmooyinka dalku ay 70% ilaa 85 waxay codkooda u bixinayaan hanan deegamaysan. Iyadooy, 15% ilaa 30% codkooda ku bixin doonan siday ay musharaxinta ugu qanceen siyaasadahooda, aqoontooda, waayo aragnimadooda iyo kartidooda.
Darasaadu waxay xusaysaa in Kulmiye doorashooyinkii hore ee dalka ka dhacay u ku xoog badnaa, gobalada Maroodijeex, Togdheer, Sanaag iyo Sool. Maanta xisbigii UDUB ee Gobalada Awdal iyo Saaxil ku xoog badnaa waa ka baxay saaxada siyaasada. Waxaayna daraasadu si gaara u daristay cida labadan gobal ay cododkooda siin doonaan.hadaba kulmiye ma kasban doonaa kalsoonida labadan gobal? Afartii gobal ee hore se tageeradooda ma haysan doona?
Bal si aynu suaalaha uga jawaabno aynu eegno, tusaale ahaan gobalka Maroodijeex oo Kulmiye helay 44.7% doorashadii maddaxtinimada ee 2010 – Sawir bay inaga siin doontaa tani gobalada kale ee afarta ah.
Gobalka Maroodijeex waxa uu ka kooban yahay 13 degmo doorasho.
- Gobalka Maroodijeex
Gobalka Maroodijeex waxaa kaadhka codbixinta qaatay 249,229 . Waxana aan qaadan kaadhka 25%. Waxay ay daraasadu oda ka rogaysaa 12.5% tiro leeg dadkii aan qaadan anay codayn dooonin. Iyadoo taa laga duulayo Maroodijeex waxaan ka codayn doonin 12.5%%.
- 249, 229 (87.5%) = 218,075
| Degmooyinka Maroodijeex** | Tirad
Codadka |
(%) Degaamada Kulmiye | Tirada codadka | 25% ***
-25% +25% |
| D/Gacan libaax | 28,610 | 55% | 15,735(-25%) | 11,802 |
| D/Ibrahin kodbuur | 29,052 | 100% | 29,052 (-25%) | 21,789 |
| D/26 June | 30,837 | 100% | 30,837 (-25%) | 23,128 |
| D/Axmed dhagax | 22,760 | 36% | 8,221** | 6165+5690
=11,855 |
| D/Maxamuud Haybe | 29,747 | 0% | 29,747 (+33%) | 9,817 |
| D/Farawayne | 13,554 | 100% | 13,554 (-25%) | 10,165 |
| D/Daarasalaam | 4,682 | 100% | 4,682 (-25%) | 3,512 |
| D/Laasgeel | 3,132 | 100% | 3,132 (-25%) | 2,349 |
| D/Cadaadley | 3,697 | 0% | 0 (+9%)* | 333 |
| D/Sabowanaag | 13,258 | 0% | 0 (+9%)* | 1,193 |
| D/Balligubadle | 11,623 | 43% | 4,998** | 2,905+3749=
= 6654 |
| D/Sallaxlay | 12,135 | 0% | 0 (+33%) | 4005 |
| D/Gabilay | 46,143 | 100% | 46,143 (-25%) | 34607 |
| Wadarta Guud | 249,229 (100%) | 141,209 | ||
| Wadarta Codayn doonta (turnout = 87.5%) | 218,075 | 123,561 (56,66%) |
*** Maroodijeex 25% degaanka Kulmiye waxay u codayn doonan axsaabta kale
**Degmooyink Axmed Dhagax iyo Balaygubdleh ayaa isagu jira 64% iyo 36% degamada Kulmiye sida loo degan yahay (xisaabtana sidaa ayaa lagaga turjumay, -25% iyo plus 25%).
*Degamada cadaadalay, iyo sabowanaag ayaa 91% codkooda siin doona xisbiga Waddani
- Gobalka Awdal
Gobalka Awdal waxaa kaadhka codbixinta qaatay 102, 571 . Waxa aan qaadan kaadhka 43%. Waxa ay daraasadu odorasaysaa 50% tiro leeg dadkii aan qaadan anay codayn dooonin. Iyadoo taa laga duulayo Awadal Waxa aan ka codayn doonin 21.5%.
- 102,571 (78.5%) = 80,518
| Gobalka Awdal Codadka uu ka heli doono Xisbiga Kulmiye | ||
| Xisbiya | Tirada | (%) |
| Kulmiye | 36,233 | 45 |
| Asaxaabta Mucaaridka | 44,285 | 55 |
| Wadarta Guud | 80,518 | 100 |
- Gobalka Saaxil
Gobalka Saaxil kaadka codbixinta waxaa qaatay 60, 817. Waxana kaadhka qaadan 30%. Waxay ay daraasadu odorasaysaa 50% tiro leeg dadkii aan qaadan anay codayn dooonin. Iyadoo taa laga duulayo Saaxil Waxaa ka codayn doona 60,871 (85%) = 51740.
| Gobalka Saaxil Codadka uu ka heli doono Xisbiga Kulmiye | ||
| Xisbiyada Qaranka | Tirada | (%) |
| Kulmiye | 38,805 | 75 |
| Asaxaabta Mucaaridka | 12,935 | 25 |
| Tirada Guud | 51740 | 100 |
- Gobalka Togdheer
Gobalka Togdheer kaadka codbixinta waxaa qaatay 147,440. Waxana kaadhka qaadan 21%. Waxay ay daraasadu odorasaysaa 50% tiro leeg dadkii aan qaadan anay codayn dooonin. Iyadoo taa laga duulayo Togdheer Waxaa ka codayn doona 147,440 (89.5%) = 131,959.
| Gobalka Togdheer Codadka uu ka heli doono Xisbiga Kulmiye | ||
| Xisbiyada Qaranka | Tirada | (%) |
| Kulmiye | 75,217 | 57 |
| Asxaabta Qaranka | 56,742 | 43 |
| Tirada guud | 131,959 | 100 |
- Sanaag
Gobalka Sanaag kaadka codbixinta waxaa qaatay 80,333. Waxanan kaadhka qaadan 6%. Waxay ay daraasadu odorasayaa 3% tiro leeg dadkii aan qaadan anay codayn dooonin. Iyadoo taa laga duulayo Sanaag waxaa ka codayn doona 80,333 (97%) = 77,923.
| Gobalka Sanaag Codadka uu ka heli doono Xisbiga Kulmiye | ||
| Xisbiyada Qaranka | Tirada | (%) |
| Kulmiye | 30,390 | 39 |
| Asxaabta Mucaaridka | 47,533 | 61 |
| Tirada Guud | 77,923 | 100 |
- Sool
Gobalka Sool kaadka codbixinta waxaa qaatay 63,698. Waxana kaadhka qaadan 12%. Waxay ay daraasadu odorasayaa 6% tiro leeg dadkii aan qaadan anay codayn dooonin. Iyadoo taa laga duulayo Sool Waxaa ka codayn doona 63,698 (94%) = 59,876
| Gobalka Sanaag Codadka uu ka heli doono Xisbiga Kulmiye | ||
| Xisbiyada Qaranka | Tirada | (%) |
| Kulmiye | 41,314 | 69 |
| Asxaabta Mucaaridka | 18,562 | 31 |
| Tirada Guud | 59,879 | 100 |
Daraasada ayaa sadaalinaysa in Kulmiye u ku Xoogbadnaan doono, gobalda Maroodijeex, Saaxil, Togdheer iyo Sool. Gobalada Awdal iyo Sanaag ayay darasadani sadaalinysaa in xibsiga Waddani kaga xoogbato.
Kulmiye ayay gushu ku raaci doontaa isga oo heli doona 345,520 cod una dhiganta (55.73%). Tirada Guud ee codayn doontana ay noqon doonto 620,091
FIIRO GAAR AH
Daraasadan ayaa laga yaaba inay yeelato 3% (margin of error) khalad ah maadama ay hawl wadeenadu ay ahaayeen xisbiga kulmiye. Iyadoo taa la tix galinayo waxa ay guushu ku raaci doontaa XISBIGA KULMIYE (52.73%)
Kulmiye oo Ku gulaysan doona 52.73%
Codadka Caqalabiyadu ay noqonayso 326,788
Gudoomiyaha Silsilada Mutadawiciinta
Axmed Cabdi Ciise