Somaliland is a self-declared state, internationally considered to be an autonomous region of Somalia. The government of the de facto state of Somaliland regards itself as the successor state to the former British Somaliland Protectorate, which, in the form of the briefly independent State of Somaliland, united as scheduled on 1 July 1960 with the Trust Territory of Somaliland (the former Italian Somaliland) to form the Somali Republic.
Somaliland has a hybrid system of governance combining traditional and western institutions. In a series of inter-clan conferences, culminating in the Borama Conference in 1993, a qabil (clan or community) system of government was constructed, which consisted of an Executive, with a President, Vice President, and legislative government; a bicameral Legislature; and an independent judiciary. The traditional Somali elderates (guurti) was incorporated into the governance structure and formed the upper house, responsible for managing internal conflicts. Government became in essence a “power-sharing coalition of Somaliland’s main clans,” with seats in the Upper and Lower houses proportionally allocated to clans according to a pre-determined formula. In 2002, Somaliland finally moved to multi-party democracy and limited to three major political parties.
The Election’s result was stunned Somaliland citizens and observers alike although Initial reports shown that the election was free and fair as there are vote irregularity, intimidations and abuse of public resource from the ruling Kulmiye party. The Somaliland National Electoral Commission had finally accepted that mistakes had been made during election. Indeed, the stark nomination of president’s cabinet minister with half of the high rank of his family would have marked the first time ever that Somaliland had established Oligarchy regime in this small country that has no resources and still not recognized by the world.
The outpouring of optimism did not last long. Within year, Muse’s government is consider the worst regime in some Somaliland as he faced many challenges locally and international. He ignored clan power sharing while he formed government with his clan, the opposition party blamed his as short term president as he closed windows of opportunity in locally and internationally. Also the wave of changes in horn of Africa made Somaliland friendless where Somalia playing red card for Somaliland’s friends to be out.
One fact remains clear, however. Following one years of escalating anti-government from newly formed rebel inside Somaliland and to an extent the confrontation of neighbouring Puntland that together are power force. Somaliland can no longer afford to ignore demands for equal power sharing. For years, the Somaliland has sacrificed respect for basic equal rights of citizens and its claim of free and fair democratic election have always been dubious at best. The status quo can no longer hold.
A faithful Ethiopian ally in the horn of Africa has changes its foreign policy towards Somaliland while Ethiopian new prime minister has made Ethiopian foreign policy shift from a coalition-collusion syndrome to a one of cooperation, mutual respect, common economic benefits and maintenance of peace and tranquillity in the Horn of Africa and Somaliland to remain sovereignty of Somalia instead of respecting as self-declared entity. However, despite waves of change in horn, all is not well in Somaliland.
In an effort to boost Somaliland shilling, authorities devalued Somaliland’s currency by targeting giant private telecommunication (Telesom). The country is also struggling to mitigate the effects of massive youth unemployment and rising inflation. The economic woes that beleaguered Somaliland have fuelled the result of election. The clan conflict remained fragile such as Ceel Afweyn clan conflict and also Sool clan conflict, new Rebel movement and internal division of the clans damaged Somaliland economy. To make matter worse, a log simmering border dispute between Somaliland and Puntland has left hundreds of people dead and more than thousand internally displaced.
Together, these opposition cries have raised credible concerns about the risk of state collapse. And there are good reasons to be worried. The power sharing of government positions and resources increasingly obstacle for recognition of Somaliland.
Adding to the creeping sense of doom is an internal power struggle that is ripping apart the ruling kulmiye party, which has been united by two clans since 2010. Waddani party and UCID party which represent rest of Somaliland clans.
In theory, Somaliland is democratic country. In practice, the government has for years enabled the domination of the country’s political space, economy, and security service by two clans (Habar-Jeclo & Habar-awal), while rest of Somaliland clans remained domination and absence of political power sharing.
This inherent tension broke the border between Somaliland and Puntland in 8 January 2018, when Somaliland attacked border town of Tukoraq which is 81.km to Garowe capital city of Puntland. This marked the first sign of a split within Somaliland army on the stage ongoing war with Puntland.
On the war of Tukoraq, the ruling Kulmiye party not now appears open to correcting course. Instead of blaming its failures on opposition, the president Mr. Muse did not acknowledged the need for equal power sharing for clans. To stop Somaliland from falling apart, however, the government will need to go much further than the alerted concessions hinted at by the opposition parties. It must undertake a host of long-overdue equal political sharing and legal reforms, including dismantling the arbitrary detentions to stifle dissent, decimate civil society, and muzzle the opposition.
A number of prominent Somaliland opposition individuals, activists, and journalists are targets of detention and conviction under a harmful police operations. To ensure that prisoners who are forgiven do not end up back behind bars, and to truly estimate with the abuses committed during the Kulmiye’s 10-year rule, Somaliland’s leaders should immediately begin dismantling the machinery of oppression by repealing and replacing those police operations, which have been routinely condemned for failing to meet international standards. In addition, to turn the page on its checked past, the Kulmiye regime which rules Somaliland must also implement a process of national reconciliation based on the principles of inclusivity and genuine political dialogue for all Somaliland clans.
Abdishakur Mohamed (PhD International Politics) is Political analysist based in Hargeisa and can be reached at abdishakurmoh@gmail.com,