Sixir Barar Nooceya Ka Jira Somaliland, Maxaase Sababay Iyo Sidii Loo Xakamayn Kalaha Sixir Bararka Noocana.

Published on February 3, 2018 by Magan

 

Sixir Barar Nooceya Ka Jira Somaliland, Maxaase Sababay Iyo Sidii Loo Xakamayn Kalaha Sixir Bararka Noocana.

Marka wadamada aduunka uu soo fooodsaaro sixir barar(inflation)  waxa samata bixiya aqooyahankiisa xaga dhaqaalaha sameeyana cilmi-baadhis  iyo faalayn dheer ka dibna laa yimaada  asbaabo lagu xakameeyo sixir bararka lakin waxad mooda in ay kaalintaasi maqantay iyada oo ay gudiga loo xil saaray sixir bararkuna ayna samayn waxyaabo cilmi-baadhisa soona saara aragti iyo asbaabo aan cilmi-baadhis ku salaysnayn.

Hadaba waxan jeclaystay inan idinla wadaago maqaal kooban oo ku saabsan waxyaabaha keenay sixir bararka Somaliland ka jira iyo noocu yahay iyo sidii loo xakamaynlaha anigoo is  waydiimo ah udhigaya ayaan qoraalkayga kaga jawaabi doona sadex(3) waydiiimo oo kala ah;

  1. Sixir barar nooceeya ayaa ka jira Somaliland?
  2. Waa maxay sababaha dhaliyey sixir bararka noocani?
  3. Side loo xakamayn karaa sixir bararkan oo kale?

Marka cudur la rabo in daweeyo marka hore waa in la ogaado wuxu yahay cudurku si ay u fududaato in la daweeyo , hadaba anigoo ka jawaabaya waydiimadayda koowad.

SIXIR BARAR NOOCEEYA AYAA KA JIRA SOMALILAND?

Waxa jira laba hab oo muhiima oo loo kala qaado sixir bararka(inflation) oo kala ah  demand-pull inflation waxa sababa marka  ay badato baahida maciishadu( increase in demand) bacdeecooyinkuna yar yihiin iyo cost-push inflation oo ay sababto ururo quwado wayn (powerful unions) amba shirkado qawado wayn (powerful firms)

Hadaba Cost-push inflation wuxu dhacaa marka kharashaadka shirkadahu kor u kaco  si ay u sii ilaayaan saaamiga faaidadooda( profit margin) waxaanu dhashaa meelo kala wudan oo ay ka mid tahay

  • Mashaharaadka oo hordha (wage increase)
  • Marka dawladu cashuurta kaga qaadato shirkadaha shidaal iwm( government tax changes)
  • Marka shirkadahu soo dhoofiyaan badanka raw materialka amba badeecooyinka ay iibiyaan ka dibna qiimaha sarifka ayaa kor u kaca (exchange rate) iyo badeecooyinka taaso u suurta galisa in ay ilaaliyan saamiya faaidadooda (profit margin).

 

Markaan faalayn dheer  sameeyey waxan u aqoonsaday sixir bararka ay wadamada soo koraya( developing countries)  ay had iyo jeer soo food-saaran  oo ah cost-push inflation ee aanu kor ku soo xusnay siiba  noocisa loo yaqaan bottleneck/structural inflation maxaa yeealay waxyaabaha sababa sixir bararka noocana ayaa ah kuwo sharaxaya xaalada dhaqaale ee wadanku hada ku suganyey. Tan waxay ii sahlaysa inan ka jawaabo waydiimadayda labaad  ah maxaa dhaliya sixir bararka noocana.

WAA MAXAY  SABABAHA DHALIYEY  SIXIR BARAR KA NOOCANA?

In kastooy ay jiraan asbaabo badan oo sababa  sixir bararka noocani lakin ku soo    koobaya inta aad ka u khuseeya xaalada dhaqaale ee hada Somaliland ku suganatay waxana ka mida;

  1. Hoos u dhac ku yimaada wax soo saarka qaybaha waa wayn – beeraha,xoolaha    ( reduction in production of major sectors-agriculture ,livestock ) marka hoos u dhac ku yimaado xoolaha(livestock) tusaale ahaan xayirada saran xoolaha iyo abaarahii oo yareeyey xoolihi, xoolaha nool ayaa ah meel laf dhabar(backbone) ah oo ay inaga soo gali jirtay lacagta ugu badan ee dollorka ahi, maxa yeealay shirkadihi amba gancasadii dollor ayey u baahantay  ay wax ku soo iibsato markaa dollorkii ayaa qaaliyobay.
  2. Kor u kac xaga Sarifka lacagta qalaad oo ay sabab u tahay dhoofin xumo

(Increase in foreign exchange due to poor export performance) waxa sababa marka qaybta dhoofintu ( export sector) ayna fulin wixii awoodeeda ahayd (export capacity) si loo helo lacag qalad oo caalamka aad wax kaga soo gadato, hadii aad eegto dheelitirka lagacaha (balance of payments) ee somaliland way cadahay waxaynu soo dhoofsano (imports ) inay ka badan yihin waxaynu dhoofino( exports) taaso sababtay hoos u dhac dhaqaale (deficit)

  1. Daabacaada lacagaha xadh dhaaf ah oo baahi loo qabaa jirin (excessive money printing without need) dabacaada lacgata badani waxay dhalisaa sixir barar sida dhaqaalyahanka badankiisu aaminsayey  hadii markasta ay dawladu ay rabo inay qarashaadka bixiso ay soo daabacdo lacag waxa badanaysa xadiga lacagta suuqa ku wareegaysa( circulation of money) taaso  sababta  qiimo dhaca lacagta (devaluation of money) wadanka.
  2. Maalgashi kooban xag ganacsato/maalgaliyayaal gude iyo dibadba( limited investment by both domestic and foreign investors) waxa jirta cabsi xaga maalgalinta la taaban karo (substantial investment) taaso sababtay in ayna ganacsatadu ay wax kasta soo dhoofiyaan waxna maalgalin sida warshadaha wax soo saar.taasoo horseeda sixir bararka
  3. Jiritan la,aan xirfad farsamo iyo xirfad ganacsiba( lack of technical and entrepreneurial skills) xirfad la,anta farsamo iyo ganacsiba waxay keentay hoose u dhac wax soo saar iyo maciiishada oo kor u kacda sababtana  sixir barar.

Hadaba qeexida waxyaabaha sabab sixir bararka noocani waxay ii sahlaysaa in wan ka jawaabo waydiimadayda sadexaad oo ah. Kuman darin saamayta adeeyada mobile iyaga gaar ayaan uga hadli doona.

SIDEE LOO XAKAMAYN KARA SIXIR BARARKA NOOCANA?

In kastoo ay jiraan asbaabo badan oo lagu xakamayeeyo sixir bararka noocani  hadana anoo soo koobaya waxa ka mida;

 

 

  1. Kor u qaadida wax soo saarka wadanka gudihiisa( Increase in domestic production)

Hadaba marka wax soo saarka wadanka gudihiiisu kor u kaco waxaa siyaadaysa awooda dhoofin (export capacity) ee wadanka waxana qiima yeesha lacagta wadamka waxana kor loogu qaadi karaa iyadoo xoola dhaqatada, beeralayda iyo ganacsatadaba lagu dhiirigaliyo wax soo saar keedo ldawladuna taagero siiso.

  1. In la horimariyo qaybta wax dhoofinta wadanka ( improvement in export sector) sidaynu ka dharagsanay waxaynu u dhoofino wadamada caalamku aad ayey u yartay taaso in sababtay hoos u dhac dhaqaale (deficit) hadaba tan waxa lagu gaadhi kara iyadoo la balaadhiyo dhaqaalaha sida beeraha ,warshadaha iyo xoolaha,tayada waxyaabaha la dhoofiyana kor loo qaado si loo helo lacago badan oo qalaad (foreign exchange) taaso u qaadaysa xadiga wax soo saarka (level of output) wadanka waxana hoos u dhaca qiimaha sare ee wax kala iibsiga.
  2. In ganacsatada wadanka lagu dhiirigaliyo in ay wadanka ka sameeyan maalgashiyo la taaban karo (substantial investment) xag beero, xoolo iyo warshadaba si loo yareeyo ku xidhnaashaha dhaqaale ee wadamada kale( economic dependent) lana soo jiito maalgaliyayaasha ajinabigaa (foreign investors) si waxyaabaha loo soo dhoofsado (imports) u yaraadan.
  3. In ay dawladu dabagasho ganacsatada wax soo dhoofisa si loo xakameeyo sixir bararka la soo dhoofiyo (imported inflation) mararka qaar ayey dhacdaa in wadamo sixir barar ka jiro ganacsatadu ka soo gadato wx kadibna sixir barar halkaa kaa xira xagana saameeyo,
  4. In kor loo qaado adeegyada lagu dhiso xirfadaha farsamo iyo ganacsiba ee beeralayda iyo xoolo dhaqatada si wax soo saarka wadanku u kobco loona helo dhaqaale xasilan ( economic stability) taaso sababta in qimayaasha(prices) alaabta iyo adeegyaduba (goods and services ) yaradaan sahashana inay alaabta la soo dhoofsado (imports ) yaraato.
  5. In aqooyahada dhaqaaluhu (economic experts) ee dawladu (government) iyo jaamacaduhuba (academia) ay sameeyan cilmo baadis ( research) iyo sahamo qoys dhaqaale (economic household surveys) si loogu kuur galo sidii looga bixi laha sixir barar wadanka saameeyey.

 

MUSTAFE HASSAN ABDI –BUKHARI

STATISTICIAN/ ECONOMIST/ MATHEMATICIAN.

EMAIL: bmustafe2@gmail.com

ISLAMIC UNIVERSITY IN UGANDA.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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