Somaliland . Sicir bararka:( inflation).
Akhristayaal waad salaamantihiin.
Waxaynu ognahay baryahan ama ilaa dabayaaqadii sanadkii hore 2017, shacabka reer somaliland waxay la daalaa dhacayeen nolol xumo ay keentay masiibooyin kala duwan oo ku habsaday somaliland, mid dabiici ah iyo mid ay keentay habdhaqanka dowladnimo ee dalka ka jira ,iyo qaybo kamida mujtamaca inta ladan oo ay tujaartu ku jirto .
Masiibooyinkaas shacabka ay la daalaa dhacayeen waxaa ka mid ahaa , abaaro, iyo sicir barar saameeyey nolosha bulshada guud ahaan iyo gaar ahaan bulshada inta taagta daran ee aan waxba haysan oo lagu qiyaasi karo 70% shacabka jamhuuriyada somaliland miyi iyo magaalaba.
Waxan jecelahay inaan idinla wadaago dhibaatooyinkaas mid kamid iyo waxa uu yahay , sida loola tacaali karo ee bulshada looga dul qaadi karo. Waa SICIR BARARKA.
Fiiro Gaara :
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(Waa mowduuc aan ku eegaayo , kuna soo bandhigaayo , Fahamka guud ee sicir-bararka , Sababaha keena iyo aragtidayda sida aan u arko xalka kaliya ee lagaga gudbi karo .
Waxa kale oo aan ku xidhayaa ,qayb ka hadlaysa kaalinta ay leedahay Wasaarada Ganacsiga oo aan muuqan ama aan odhankaro waa fadhiid).
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FAHAMKA GUUD EE SICIR BARARKA;
( The General Concept of Inflation.)
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Sicir –bararka ama waxa loo yaqaan (inflation), waa korodka ku yimaada qiimaha alaabta iyo adeega aasaasiga u ah nolosha bulshada , kor u kac ku yimaada quudka bulshadu ku nooshahay . Si kale hadaan u dhigo waa qiimo dhac ku yimaada qiimaha lacagta ( decrease in purchasing power of local currency) iyadoo aan waxba jarayn . hoos udhac ku yimaada awooda lacagta wadanku leeyahay.
Inflation is defined as a sustained increase in the general level of prices for goods and services. It is measured as an annual percentage increase. As inflation rises, every S.L.SH. You own buys a smaller percentage of a good or service.
Macno ahaan waxa lagu sheegaa ama ay ku tilmaamaan dhaqaalayahanadu sida MILTON FRIEDMAN wuxuu ku sheegay sicir-bararka sidan hoose:
Sicir bararka waa lacag badan oo eryanaysa ama daba ordhaysa alaab yar .Macnaha waa lacag badan oo bilaa qiimo ah oo aan waxba goynahayn , iyo alaabta suuqa taala oo aad u yar qiimaheduna kor u kacsanyahay.( high demand vs low supply). E.g. Slshilings.vs USD.
Kaash badan oo eryanaaya dollar kooban .
Inflation is a general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of money.
Hadaynu ku salayno macnahaas suuqeena , waa qiima dhac ku yimid lacagteena(SLSH) iyo doolarkii oo kacay .waxii kalena waa looga tusaale qaadan karaa.
Marka laga hadlaayo sicir bararka si cilmiyaysan, waxaa had iyo jeer lagu saleeyaa aragtiyo kala duwan., sababaha keena iyo saamaynta uu yeesho.
Ku dheeraan mayo, laakiin waxan jecelahay uun inaan bal cabiro sababaha caalamiga ah ee keena sicir bararka qaarkood , ka dibna aan somalilandna aan eego sababahaas inay ka jiraan iyo in kale , ka dib waxaynu ogaanaynaa sababaha keenay sicir bararka Somaliland ka jira ,
Ma la midyahay sababaha keena sicir-bararka ee aduunka iyo aqoontuba qirtay , ee dalkasta ka dhici kara, mid qaniya iyo mid faqiiraba , mid aqoon leh oo horumaray ama mid aan horu marin .IWM.
Ma siyaasad xumo dhaqaale ayaa keentay sicir-bararka Somaliland ka jira ?.
Ma sharci la’aan iyo hanaan-xumo ganacsi, cashuureed ayaa keentay ?.
Hadaan soo koobo sicir-bararka sababaha keena Si guud ,waxaa ka mida sidan hoose :
1. Siyaasad lacagta (poor monetary policy) siyaasadu qayb weyn ayay ka qadataa sicir-bararka inuu yimaado , sida ay qaybweyn uga qaadato ka hortagida sicir-bararka ,hadaan ku salayno aragtida (quantity theory of money ),hadii dowladu ama nidaam jiraa uu kordhiyo daabacaada lacagtiisa iyada oo aanay kordhin dhaqaalaha wadanku , oo dowladaasi soo saarto lacag ka badan tii dalku u baahnaa waxaa dhacaya sicir –barar .
It means, (an increase in money supply causes prices to rise (inflation) as they compensate for the decrease in money’s marginal value).
2. Dhaqaalaha dalka oo kor u kaca : (Booming or economic overheating): Waxa kale oo sicir-bararku dhacaa marka , dhaqaalaha wadanku oo kor u kaco , shaqo abuurku bato , dadka dakhligoodu kor u kaco , isticmaalkooda bato , baahidooda badato , warshaduhu waxsoo saar badan sameeyaan , waxa yimaada sicir-barar uu keenay dhaqaale korodh ku yimid dalka , dakhli korodh ku yimid bulshada ,bulshada iyo baahideedii oo batay iwm.
(An economy is said to be overheated when inflation increases due to prolonged good growth rate and the producers produce in excess thereby creating excess production capacity. The main reason behind overheating is insufficient supply allocation because of excess spending by the people due to increase in consumer wealth).
3. Korodhka kharashka wax soo saarka (cost push inflation). Sababaha keena sicir-bararka waxa ka mida ,marka warshadlayda dalka ,kharashka ay wax kusoo saarayaan kordho , sida, shaqaalaha musharkooda , cashuurta dowlada , alaabaha waxlaga sameeyo ee caydhin (raw materials) iwm. Si ay markaas faaiido u helaan, waa inay kordhiyaan qiimaha ay wax ku iibinayaan. ( Markaasoo kale qanuunbaa kala saara , waxay iibinayaan ee ay kordhinayaan sixirkooda iyo waxa aanay kordhin Karin , oo laga yaabo dowladaha qaar inay kaabaan ).
It means, (Cost push inflation is inflation caused by an increase in prices of inputs like labour, raw material, etc. The increased price of the factors of production leads to a decreased supply of these goods.).
Waxa kale oo la raaciyaa in marka warshadlayda ama shirkadaha adeega u fidiya bulshada cashuuro bilaa sharciya layska duldhigo waxa yimaada sicir-barar. Waxay kusheegaan sidan hoose ,
Milton Friedman quotes as below:
(“Inflation is taxation without legislation.” Cashuur aan sharci ku dhisnayni waa sicir-barar.
4. Sarifka lacaga qalaad (Foreign exchange): waxa kale oo ka mida ama keena sicir-bararka , qiima dhac ku yimaada lacagta (depreciation), ay sababtay isku badalka lacagaha qalaad .
Daraasaadka cilmiyeed ee ku saabsan sicir-bararka , qodobadaas ayay kusoo ururiyaan ,waxyaabaha keena ee saamaynta weyn kuleh nolosha bulshada.
Sicir-bararka meel kasta oo uu ka dhaco waxa lagu xaliyaa ,xilgudasho siyaasadeed oo ku dhisan ilaalinta baahida iyo nolosha bulshada ,oo ay fulinteeda iyo masuuliyadeeda leedahay dowlada markaas jirta . Dowlada waa cunsurka ugu horeeya ay waajib qaran ku tahay inay ka jawaabaan sicirbararka lana tacaalaan ,si loo ilaaliyo dheeli tirnaanta nololeed ee bulsho meel kuwada nool. Taas oo macnaheedu yahay in bulshadu noolaan karto keeda wax haysta , iyo keeda aan waxba haysan .
SOMALILAND, markaad u timaado waxaan qabaa Inay dhamaan sababahaasi ka jiraan, siyaasaduna kow ka tahay, sicir bararka kusoo kordhaya bulshada nolosheeda dowlada Somaliland ayaa qayb weyn ka ah sabab:
1. Siyaasad xumo ganacsi: dowladeenu waxa la iibinaayo ee bulshada nolosheeda sammaynta ku leh iyo waxa faakahaydsiga ah, may kala saarin mana kala taqaanoba (needs and wants).
Aduunka marka bulsho baahideeda aasaasiga ah la ilaalinaayo waa in ay jiraan sharci lagu ilaaliyo waa in la ogyahay shayga asaasiga ah , tusaale ,sonkorta ,bariska ,gaasta, iwm . waa inay garato shayga hadii qiimihiisa kor u kaco, saamaynaaya nolosha faqiirka iyo qanigaba iyo shayga aan kala saamaynayn . si loo ilaaliyo waa in laba sharci oo qaran jiraan sida hoose:
a) Essential Commodities Act . b). Consumer Protection Act. Labadaas sharci oo qayb ka qaadan lahaa ilaalinta asaasiyaadka bulshada ,dowladu way ku fashilantay.
Siyaasada ganacsiga ee dalku taabo gal maaha ,markaas waa sabab keenaysa is dhexyaaca sixirka alaabadau inuu saameeyo nolosha bulshada. Hayadii waxan abuuri lahaydna cuqaal bay la fadhidaa iyo wax la mida .
2. Waxa kale oo sabab u ah sicir bararka Somaliland , lacago aan loo meel dayin oo dowladu soo daabacato , iyadoon la ogayn baahida lacageed xadiga lacageed ee guud ahaan dalku u baahanyahay , cash ka dalka yaala iyo baahida cash ee jirta iyadoon la qiyaasin ,in lasoo daabacdo lacag ka badan intii loo baahnaa oo ay ku fushanayaan ujeedooyin siyaasadeed.
(Supply of unnecessary cash to the market hence, there is no cash circulation policy &control in Somaliland).
3. Markay soo daabacaan ka dib waxay dowladii eryanaysaa, inay urursato waxii doolar iyo lacag qalaad suuqa yaalay (collection of foreign currencies).
Waa sidii qaaciidadii ahayd , waa cash badan (slsh) oo eryanaysa ama daba ordaysa cash yar oo kale (Usd). Lacagtii Somaliland ayaa markaas qiima dhacaysa, waana dowladii ilaalin lahayd ayaad howsha wadda, waxa kale oo la mida nidaamka cashuureed iyo shuruucdiisa oo aan daganayn , kuna salaysnayn waxa cashuurta la saarayaa ma wax keeni kara korukac sixir oo saamaynaaya bulshadaA mise waa fakahaadsi iwm.
4. Qodobka afraad ee sababta u ah sicir-bararka Somaliland ka jira , waa dhanka gannacsatada wax keenta , maadaama Somaliland aanay ahayn dal wax soo saara , gacansigeena waxa uu ku salaysanyahay(trading ). Markaas gacacsataduna qaybweyn ayay ka yihiin , waxa ka luntay masuuliyadii umadeed , ay ahayd inay dhankooda ka ilaaliyaan una tudhaan shacabkooda taagta daran .
Markay waayeen wax xadeeya , shuruuc iyo qawaaniin , ku salaysan ilaalinta nolosha ummada , waxay hirgaliyeen mabaadii ay iyagu samaysteen oo ah adigu uun wax hel(that is all)
Waxay doonaan ayay saaraan . kharashka ka baxay lama oga , cid dabagashaa ma jirto ,cashuurta ma bixiyaan qaarkood iwm.
Shay kasta oo dalka la keeno kharashka uu taaganyahay iyo faaiidada saarani isma laha (not proportionate).
Markaan soo koobo , sicir-bararka Somaliland ka jira waxa saldhig u ah dowlada xumo ,Somaliland .
Waxaan odhan karaa waxaa jirta xil-gudasho la’aan siyaasadeed,masuuliyadeed,oo haysta dowladeena jamhuuriyada barakaysan ee nasiibka daran , ee aan wali helin ehelkeedii.
La soco qaybaha danbe :
Waxaan kusoo gudbin doonaa sida aan xalka u arko iyo sicir bararka somaliland ka jira , iyo talo bixinta aan siinaayo cid kasta oo howshaasi khusayso ama Gacanta ku haysa.
Abdirashid Hussein Yousuf:
Gahaydhle@live.com,
Doha, Qatar.